Just as some teams and athletes like alpine ski racer Sofia Goggia, tennis star Jannik Sinner and Serie A giants Inter Milan are perennial favourites to win titles in their respective sports, some teams and athletes never fare quite as well.
That is reflected in betting odds at legal sportsbooks, including independent bookmakers. At the best of them, you will find many markets with good odds, but certain entities always seem to be at long prices for success, no matter what.
Underdogs can often fade into the background when looking for sports betting picks due to the risk involved in backing them, but there are ways to potentially leverage good positions by looking at alternative points of view.
Finding Underdogs
There are always underdogs in a competition. No one expects the likes of established clubs Cagliari or Torino to be in the position of winning the Scudetto in Serie A, for example. So season after season they will be long underdogs in the odds for the title race.
That also means that they aren’t worth betting on because the chances of them getting the title are so slim. But there are still ways to bet on underdogs who aren’t expected to go that far. Reading form and diving into stats, is the way to gauge underdogs. Let’s have a look at some teams and players beyond the favourites to find betting opportunities.
Matteo Berrettini
Tennis player Matteo Berrettini was once ranked as high as sixth in the ATP rankings but finished 2024 ranked 34th. So that’s a fair indication of his level and not the type of player that you would expect to see winning Grand Slam titles.
But Berrettini did make the final of Wimbledon 2021, the semi-finals at the 2019 US Open and the 2022 Australian Open. So there have been times when he has risen to stronger performances.
By reading previous tournament history and pairing it with current form, instead of expecting him to win a Grand Slam outright from a quote of something like 18.0 odds, backing him to reach at least the quarter-finals could make for a solid alternative option.
Udinese
Since recording three top-five finishes in a row between 2011 and 2013, Udinese have struggled to bank a finish in the top half of Serie A. So in terms of the title race, they are always long-priced underdogs, but for what is currently an average team, there are still plenty of betting opportunities.
At around 5.0 or longer for an away visit to a top-five side, for example, they are well worth skipping over, but on home soil, when they are hosting teams around them in the standings, based on current form, they could be worth a look to pull off an underdog success. Goal bets are also worth considering, as they often score even in a poor performance.
Lucia Bronzetti
Lucia Bronzetti has a career-high of 46 in the world, which was achieved last year. So this is the type of tennis player who is unlikely to be on the radar for a title win at higher-ranking tournaments.
But when the Italian player enters lower ranking events, like a WTA 250 event, for example, she can be expected to run a little deeper into the draw. Bronzetti, whose only singles title happened in 2023 in Rabat, reached the semi-finals of Guangzhou and Monastir in 2024, so lowering expectations away from major tournaments provides betting opportunities on her.
Francesco Molinari
Golfer Francesco Molinari has had some tremendous career highlights, like his 2018 Open Championship victory. He hasn’t been outside the top 100 players in the world from 2008 to 2019, and his best rank is 5th. But he’s been pretty inconsistent recently, and he’s ranked below 400 in 2024-25.
Therefore, Molinari is always going to be an underdog in events, but exploring alternative markets like a head-to-head, a Top 10 or Top 20 Finish depending on his current form and course history, is always going to be worth a look.
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
There will be a lot of focus on Andrea Kimi Antonelli this year as he makes his debut in F1 alongside George Russell for Mercedes. The teenager is naturally not going to be in the discussion for the Drivers’ World Championship, even though his rise to this stage has been meteoric.
Fighting for wins at the elite level of motor racing is going to be a massive challenge, leaving him as an underdog in races. But taking a different perspective will help, selecting races where he may have a chance at a top 10 or a Top 5 Finish, for example, based on his pole position.
Patience and Reading Form
There are times when poor teams will have their day. Underdogs in a Serie A match will punch above their weight occasionally and beat a team like Napoli or Inter Milan. The challenge for bettors as always is catching those moments before they happen, but it’s always worth scoping out and at least considering the validity of potential underdog contenders on the day.
Featured image: Wikimedia
Contributing author to Weird Italy, a platform dedicated to the exploration of unique and unusual aspects of Italian culture, history, and contemporary phenomena.